The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities

Simone Gittelson, Tamyra R. Moretti, Anthony J. Onorato, Bruce Budowle, Bruce S. Weir, John Buckleton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An update was performed of the classic experiments that led to the view that profile probability assignments are usually within a factor of 10 of each other. The data used in this study consist of 15 Identifiler loci collected from a wide range of forensic populations. Following Budowle et al. [1], the terms cognate and non-cognate are used. The cognate database is the database from which the profiles are simulated. The profile probability assignment was usually larger in the cognate database. In 44%–65% of the cases, the profile probability for 15 loci in the non-cognate database was within a factor of 10 of the profile probability in the cognate database. This proportion was between 60% and 80% when the FBI and NIST data were used as the non-cognate databases. A second experiment compared the match probability assignment using a generalised database and recommendation 4.2 from NRC II (the 4.2 assignment) with a proxy for the matching proportion developed using subpopulation allele frequencies and the product rule. The findings support that the 4.2 assignment has a large conservative bias. These results are in agreement with previous research results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)178-187
Number of pages10
JournalForensic Science International: Genetics
Volume28
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 May 2017

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Databases
DNA
Proxy
Gene Frequency
Research
Population

Keywords

  • Allele frequency
  • Database
  • Subpopulations
  • Weight of evidence

Cite this

Gittelson, S., Moretti, T. R., Onorato, A. J., Budowle, B., Weir, B. S., & Buckleton, J. (2017). The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities. Forensic Science International: Genetics, 28, 178-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2017.02.007
Gittelson, Simone ; Moretti, Tamyra R. ; Onorato, Anthony J. ; Budowle, Bruce ; Weir, Bruce S. ; Buckleton, John. / The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities. In: Forensic Science International: Genetics. 2017 ; Vol. 28. pp. 178-187.
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The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities. / Gittelson, Simone; Moretti, Tamyra R.; Onorato, Anthony J.; Budowle, Bruce; Weir, Bruce S.; Buckleton, John.

In: Forensic Science International: Genetics, Vol. 28, 01.05.2017, p. 178-187.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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