TY - JOUR
T1 - The ecological determinants of severe dengue
T2 - A Bayesian inferential model
AU - Annan, Esther
AU - Bukhari, Moeen Hamid
AU - Treviño, Jesús
AU - Abad, Zahra Shakeri Hossein
AU - Lubinda, Jailos
AU - da Silva, Eduardo A.B.
AU - Haque, Ubydul
N1 - Funding Information:
There was no funding for this study. U.H. was supported by Rutgers Global Health Institute .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2023/5
Y1 - 2023/5
N2 - Low socioeconomic status (SES), high temperature, and increasing rainfall patterns are associated with increased dengue case counts. However, the effect of climatic variables on individual dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and the extent to which serotype count affects the rate of severe dengue in Mexico have not been studied before. A principal components analysis was used to determine the poverty indices across Mexico. Conditional autoregressive Bayesian models were used to determine the effect of poverty and climatic variables on the rate of serotype distribution and severe dengue in Mexico. A unit increase in poverty increased the rate of DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 by 8.4%, 5%, 16%, and 13.8% respectively. An increase in one case attributable to DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 was independently associated with an increase in the rate of severe dengue by 0.02%, 0.1%, 0.03%, and 5.8% respectively. Hotspots of all DENV serotypes and severe dengue are found mostly in parts of the Northeastern, Center west, and Southeastern regions of Mexico. The association between climatic parameters predominant in the Southeast region and severe dengue leaves several states in this region at an increased risk of a higher number of severe dengue cases. Our study's results may guide policies that help allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable municipalities in Mexico.
AB - Low socioeconomic status (SES), high temperature, and increasing rainfall patterns are associated with increased dengue case counts. However, the effect of climatic variables on individual dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and the extent to which serotype count affects the rate of severe dengue in Mexico have not been studied before. A principal components analysis was used to determine the poverty indices across Mexico. Conditional autoregressive Bayesian models were used to determine the effect of poverty and climatic variables on the rate of serotype distribution and severe dengue in Mexico. A unit increase in poverty increased the rate of DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 by 8.4%, 5%, 16%, and 13.8% respectively. An increase in one case attributable to DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 was independently associated with an increase in the rate of severe dengue by 0.02%, 0.1%, 0.03%, and 5.8% respectively. Hotspots of all DENV serotypes and severe dengue are found mostly in parts of the Northeastern, Center west, and Southeastern regions of Mexico. The association between climatic parameters predominant in the Southeast region and severe dengue leaves several states in this region at an increased risk of a higher number of severe dengue cases. Our study's results may guide policies that help allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable municipalities in Mexico.
KW - Aedes mosquito
KW - Dengue fever
KW - Dengue serotypes
KW - Humidity
KW - Mexico
KW - Rainfall
KW - Socioeconomic risk factors
KW - Temperature
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146539815&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.101986
DO - 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.101986
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85146539815
SN - 1574-9541
VL - 74
JO - Ecological Informatics
JF - Ecological Informatics
M1 - 101986
ER -