Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission

Jailos Lubinda; Ubydul Haque; Yaxin Bi; Busiku Hamainza; Adrian J. Moore

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9

Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission

Jailos Lubinda, Ubydul Haque, Yaxin Bi, Busiku Hamainza, Adrian J. Moore

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Abstract

The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.

Original language	English
Article number	751
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9
State	Published - Dec 2021

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title = "Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission",

abstract = "The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.",

author = "Jailos Lubinda and Ubydul Haque and Yaxin Bi and Busiku Hamainza and Moore, {Adrian J.}",

note = "Funding Information: The United Kingdom Commonwealth Scholarship Commission funded Jailos Lubinda as part of his PhD studies. Ubydul Haque was funded in part by the Emerging Pathogens Institute at the University of Florida and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, as part of the University of Florida Pre-eminence Initiative. All funding sources had NO involvement in the decision to write or publish this work. The opinions expressed in the manuscript are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any funders of co-authors. As the corresponding author, JL had full access to all data in the study and has final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9",

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AU - Hamainza, Busiku

AU - Moore, Adrian J.

N1 - Funding Information: The United Kingdom Commonwealth Scholarship Commission funded Jailos Lubinda as part of his PhD studies. Ubydul Haque was funded in part by the Emerging Pathogens Institute at the University of Florida and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, as part of the University of Florida Pre-eminence Initiative. All funding sources had NO involvement in the decision to write or publish this work. The opinions expressed in the manuscript are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any funders of co-authors. As the corresponding author, JL had full access to all data in the study and has final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/12

Y1 - 2021/12

N2 - The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.

AB - The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.

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Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission

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