TY - JOUR
T1 - Malaria epidemics in India
T2 - Role of climatic condition and control measures
AU - Baghbanzadeh, Mahdi
AU - Kumar, Dewesh
AU - Yavasoglu, Sare I.
AU - Manning, Sydney
AU - Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali
AU - Ghasemzadeh, Hassan
AU - Sikder, Ifthekar
AU - Kumar, Dilip
AU - Murmu, Nisha
AU - Haque, Ubydul
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/4/10
Y1 - 2020/4/10
N2 - Malaria is a major public health problem in India, which is the second most populous country in the world. This study aimed to investigate the impact of climatic parameters and malaria control efforts implemented by the Indian national malaria control program on malaria epidemics between January of 2009 and December of 2015. A chi-squared test was used to study the correlation of all implemented control methods with occurrence of epidemics within 30, 45, 60 and 90 days and in the same district, 50, 100 and 200 km distance radiuses. The effect of each control method on probability of epidemics was also measured, and the effects of district population, season, and incidence of malaria parasite types were evaluated using logistic regression models. Fever survey was found to be effective for decreasing the odds of epidemics within 45, 60 and 90 days in 100 km. Anti-larval activity was also effective within 30, 45 and 60 days in 200 km. Winter had negative effects on odds ratio while summer and fall were more likely to trigger epidemics. These results contribute to understanding the role of climate variability and control efforts performed in India.
AB - Malaria is a major public health problem in India, which is the second most populous country in the world. This study aimed to investigate the impact of climatic parameters and malaria control efforts implemented by the Indian national malaria control program on malaria epidemics between January of 2009 and December of 2015. A chi-squared test was used to study the correlation of all implemented control methods with occurrence of epidemics within 30, 45, 60 and 90 days and in the same district, 50, 100 and 200 km distance radiuses. The effect of each control method on probability of epidemics was also measured, and the effects of district population, season, and incidence of malaria parasite types were evaluated using logistic regression models. Fever survey was found to be effective for decreasing the odds of epidemics within 45, 60 and 90 days in 100 km. Anti-larval activity was also effective within 30, 45 and 60 days in 200 km. Winter had negative effects on odds ratio while summer and fall were more likely to trigger epidemics. These results contribute to understanding the role of climate variability and control efforts performed in India.
KW - Epidemics
KW - Outbreak
KW - Public health
KW - Seasonal influence
KW - Vector-borne disease
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85078053389&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136368
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136368
M3 - Article
C2 - 32050403
AN - SCOPUS:85078053389
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 712
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
M1 - 136368
ER -