TY - JOUR
T1 - Environmental suitability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the spatial distribution of major arboviral infections in Mexico
AU - Lubinda, Jailos
AU - Treviño C., Jesús A.
AU - Walsh, Mallory Rose
AU - Moore, Adrian J.
AU - Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali
AU - Akgun, Seval
AU - Zhao, Bingxin
AU - Barro, Alassane S.
AU - Begum, Mst Marium
AU - Jamal, Hera
AU - Angulo-Molina, Aracely
AU - Haque, Ubydul
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the UK Commonwealth Scholarship for supporting/funding JL in his current PhD studies through which the collaboration for this work is made possible. The Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center provided support for one of the authors (UH). All data is available to the corresponding author and can be made available via request. Permission to use these data was approved by the Ministry of Public Health, Mexico. This study was also approved by the ethical committee, Universidad Autónoma De Nuevo León, Mexico. Not applicable. Conceived the study design: J.L, J.A.T, U·H; Drafted the manuscript J.L, A.J.M, A.A.H-B, A.S·B, H.J, B.Z, MRW; Methodology: J.L, U·H, A.S·B, A.A.H-B; Data preparation: J.L, U·H; Analysis & interpretation: J.L, U·H; Writing review & editing: J.L, A.J.M, J.A.T, A.A.H-B, A.S·B, H.J, B.Z, S.A, M.B, U·H, MRW, AAM; Editing and approval from all authors. None.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019
PY - 2019/8
Y1 - 2019/8
N2 - Background: This paper discusses a comparative geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Mexico, using environmental suitability modeling and reported cases of arboviral infections. Methods: Using presence-only records, we modeled mosquito niches to show how much they influenced the distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus based on mosquito records collected at the municipality level. Mosquito surveillance data were used to create models regarding the predicted suitability of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitos in Mexico. Results: Ae. albopictus had relatively a better predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC = 0.87) to selected bioclimatic variables compared to Ae. aegypti (AUC = 0.81). Ae. aegypti were more suitable for areas with minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6, permutation importance 28.7%) −6 °C to 21.5 °C, cumulative winter growing degree days (GDD) between 40 and 500, and precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) >8.4 mm. Minimum temperature range of the coldest month (Bio6) was −6.6 °C to 20.5 °C, and average precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) 8.9 mm ~ 600 mm were more suitable for the existence of Ae. albopictus. However, arboviral infections maps prepared from the 2012–2016 surveillance data showed cases were reported far beyond predicted municipalities. Conclusions: This study identified the urgent necessity to start surveillance in 925 additional municipalities that reported arbovirus infections but did not report Aedes mosquito.
AB - Background: This paper discusses a comparative geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Mexico, using environmental suitability modeling and reported cases of arboviral infections. Methods: Using presence-only records, we modeled mosquito niches to show how much they influenced the distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus based on mosquito records collected at the municipality level. Mosquito surveillance data were used to create models regarding the predicted suitability of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitos in Mexico. Results: Ae. albopictus had relatively a better predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC = 0.87) to selected bioclimatic variables compared to Ae. aegypti (AUC = 0.81). Ae. aegypti were more suitable for areas with minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6, permutation importance 28.7%) −6 °C to 21.5 °C, cumulative winter growing degree days (GDD) between 40 and 500, and precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) >8.4 mm. Minimum temperature range of the coldest month (Bio6) was −6.6 °C to 20.5 °C, and average precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) 8.9 mm ~ 600 mm were more suitable for the existence of Ae. albopictus. However, arboviral infections maps prepared from the 2012–2016 surveillance data showed cases were reported far beyond predicted municipalities. Conclusions: This study identified the urgent necessity to start surveillance in 925 additional municipalities that reported arbovirus infections but did not report Aedes mosquito.
KW - Habitat suitability
KW - MaxEnt
KW - Niche modeling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071402131&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.parepi.2019.e00116
DO - 10.1016/j.parepi.2019.e00116
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85071402131
SN - 2405-6731
VL - 6
JO - Parasite Epidemiology and Control
JF - Parasite Epidemiology and Control
M1 - e00116
ER -