TY - JOUR
T1 - Appraising the historical and projected spatiotemporal changes in the heat index in Bangladesh
AU - Rahman, Mahzabin Binte
AU - Salam, Roquia
AU - Islam, Abu Reza Md Towfiqul
AU - Tasnuva, Anjum
AU - Haque, Ubydul
AU - Shahid, Shamsuddin
AU - Hu, Zhenghua
AU - Mallick, Javed
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Khalid University for funding this work through Research Group under grant number (R.G.P.2 /194/42).
Funding Information:
We greatly acknowledge the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for proving the necessary datasets in this work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2021/10
Y1 - 2021/10
N2 - Climate change-derived extreme heat phenomena are one of the major concerns across the globe, including Bangladesh. The appraisal of historical spatiotemporal changes and possible future changes in heat index (HI) is essential for developing heat stress mitigation strategies. However, the climate-health nexus studies in Bangladesh are very limited. This study was intended to appraise the historical and projected changes in HI in Bangladesh. The HI was computed from daily dry bulb temperature and relative humidity. The modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) test and linear regression were used to detect trends in HI for the observed period (1985–2015). The future change in HI was projected for the mid-century (2041–2070) for three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 using the Canadian Earth System Model Second Generation (CanESM2). The results revealed a monotonic rise in the HI and extreme caution conditions, especially in the humid summer season for most parts of Bangladesh for the observed period (1985–2015). Future projections revealed a continuous rise in HI in the forthcoming period (2041–2070). A higher and remarkable increase in the HI was projected in the northern, northeastern, and south-central regions. Among the three scenarios, the RCP 8.5 showed a higher projection of HI both in hot and humid summer compared to the other scenarios. Therefore, Bangladesh should take region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of HI.
AB - Climate change-derived extreme heat phenomena are one of the major concerns across the globe, including Bangladesh. The appraisal of historical spatiotemporal changes and possible future changes in heat index (HI) is essential for developing heat stress mitigation strategies. However, the climate-health nexus studies in Bangladesh are very limited. This study was intended to appraise the historical and projected changes in HI in Bangladesh. The HI was computed from daily dry bulb temperature and relative humidity. The modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) test and linear regression were used to detect trends in HI for the observed period (1985–2015). The future change in HI was projected for the mid-century (2041–2070) for three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 using the Canadian Earth System Model Second Generation (CanESM2). The results revealed a monotonic rise in the HI and extreme caution conditions, especially in the humid summer season for most parts of Bangladesh for the observed period (1985–2015). Future projections revealed a continuous rise in HI in the forthcoming period (2041–2070). A higher and remarkable increase in the HI was projected in the northern, northeastern, and south-central regions. Among the three scenarios, the RCP 8.5 showed a higher projection of HI both in hot and humid summer compared to the other scenarios. Therefore, Bangladesh should take region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of HI.
KW - CanESM2
KW - Heat index
KW - Heat stress
KW - Spatiotemporal change
KW - Statistical downscaling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85111097301&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s00704-021-03705-x
DO - 10.1007/s00704-021-03705-x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85111097301
SN - 0177-798X
VL - 146
SP - 125
EP - 138
JO - Theoretical and Applied Climatology
JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology
IS - 1-2
ER -