A reassessment of frequency estimates of PvuII-generated VNTR profiles in a Finnish, an Italian, and a general U.S. caucasian database: No evidence for ethnic subgroups affecting forensic estimates

Recently, Krane et al. addressed the effect of estimating various target DNA profile frequencies in Finnish, Italian, and general U.S. Caucasian databases. They observed that, when using an 'inappropriate ethnic,' or noncognate, database (e.g., a Finnish target profile frequency estimated in an Italian database, and vice versa), estimates were less common than when the target profile frequencies were estimated using their own ethnic, or cognate, database, and these estimates differed by more than one order of magnitude. These differences were attributed to the effects of subgroups. We demonstrate that the differences can be ascribed to statistical artifacts that induce large biases and correlations. Additionally, we show that the differences of estimates of any specific DNA profile frequency based on allelic size frequencies from different databases become smaller when the fixed-bin rather than a ±2.5% floating-bin approach is used.